UN: The planet will “catch fire” suddenly, with temperatures rising above 1.5 ° C


The average temperature on Earth could rise above 1.5 ° Celsis some year within the next five years, warns the United Nations.

However, temporarily exceeding this limit for one year will not exceed the rules contained in the Paris Climate Agreement.

The 2015 agreement was intended to keep global temperatures rising below the average of 2 ° C per year – and if possible below 1.5 ° C.

According to a newer climate news release released today by the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the chances of temporarily exceeding the 1.5 ° Celsius limit have been steadily rising since 2015, a year in which the risk he was almost at zero.

In the years from 2017 to 2021, this probability was at 10%. But it has now passed “almost 50% for the period 2022-2026”, underlines the WHO. However, he considers the five-year average to be rather small (10%) as well as exceeding the 1.5 ° Celsius limit.

“This study shows, with great scientific reliability, that we are significantly approaching the moment when we will temporarily reach the lower limit of the Paris Agreement. This number (…) was not chosen at random. “It marks a point beyond which the effects on the climate will be increasingly harmful to the population and to the entire planet,” explained the Secretary General of the WHO, Peteri Talas.

“As long as we continue to emit the greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise. “At the same time, our oceans will continue to heat up and become toxic, sea ice and icebergs will continue to collapse, sea levels will continue to rise and extreme weather conditions will continue to intensify.”

It also highlights the rise in temperature in the Arctic, where conditions are having a global impact.

According to the newsletter, which includes annual and ten-year global climate forecasts from the British Meteorological Service (Met Office), the main center of the PMO for species estimates, there is a very high probability (93%) of any of the years between 2022 and 2026 to be the hottest recorded in history.

The record holds for the time being in 2016, marked by a strong El Nino, an ocean phenomenon that leads to rising temperatures.

There is also a possibility that the average temperature in the period 2022-2026 will reach 93% higher than that of the last five years (2017-2021).

In 2021, global temperatures on average exceeded the pre-industrial reference temperature by 1.11 ° Celsius, according to a recent WHO report on the global climate. The final version of the report will be published on May 18.

According to the PMO, the La Niίνa phenomenon in the beginning and end of 2021 led to a decrease in global temperatures, but this “is only temporary” and does not reverse “the trend of global warming in the long run.” The appearance of an El Niιοo phenomenon would immediately lead to an increase in temperatures.

source: ΑΠΕ

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