Scenarios for when Putin I will declare an end to the war in Ukraine analyzed at a Financial Times conference, the diplomat guru, Henry Kissinger leaving The possibility of the Russian president using nuclear weapons is open.
As President Vladimir Putin said miscalculated the international situation and the potential of Russia itself, when the invasion of Ukraine began. «It must end the war when all chances of Russia remaining a major power in the future are virtually eliminated.“Noted the former US Secretary of State, who served under the administrations of Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford in the 1970s.
He stressed that he feared that the conflict could be diverted and turned into a nuclear war.
It is noted that Kissinger played a key role in shaping US foreign policy during the Cold War, Under his leadership, tensions between the two countries between the United States and Soviet Russia escalated, particularly between the United States and China, which led to President Nixon’s historic visit to Beijing in 1972.
At the Financial Times event, the top American diplomat explained how he succeeded to separate Moscow from Beijing, facing the two enemies differently. «In the midst of hostilities in Europe, Washington should now seek to do the same once again“, He stressed.
«After the Ukraine war, Russia will have to reassess its relationship with Europe to a minimum and its general attitude towards NATO“, He added.
The war in Ukraine is now in its 11th week and Russia has so far not achieved any significant goal in the country. In early April, Russian troops deployed in the vicinity of Kyiv were redirected from the Kremlin to southeastern Ukraine with the new goal of “complete liberation” of its territory. Donbass. Thus, the Ukrainian armed forces were able to regain control of much of the north.
Western intelligence services and international observers pwere waiting for Putin to make a big announcement yesterday that Russia was celebrating Victory Day, celebrating the defeat of the Soviet Union by Nazi Germany. Surprisingly, however, the Russian president has avoided declaring a full-scale war in Ukraine or announcing a general mobilization, a move analysts say could be a sign that Putin is wary that the Russian people are willing to endure.
At this stage, it is difficult to predict how the war will end. Asked about his possible conclusion, Kissinger said Russia would continue to fight in Ukraine until the conflict will “waste” so much of its military capability and resources that the country is in danger of losing its status as a major power.
«“The obvious question is how long will this escalation last and how much room is there for further escalation?” Kissinger. “Or has he reached the limit and has to decide at what point the escalation of the war will strain his society to a point where it will limit its suitability to pursue international politics as a major power in the future?”“, He pointed out.
In fact, when asked if Russia will activate its nuclear arsenal to end the war, he said it was something he could not have predicted. «We are now living in a completely new era“From the Cold War,” he said.
Regarding avoiding a nuclear disaster “Kissinger’s goal during the Cold War – circumstances have changed so much in recent decades that there needs to be a whole new debate on the possible effects of the use of nuclear weapons,” he said.
«As technology spreads around the world, as inherently, diplomacy and war will need different content and this will be a challenge.“, He clarified.
«One thing we could not do in my opinion is just accept it“, concluded.